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U.S. Treasury yields were little changed Tuesday morning as markets took a breather while investors waited for progress on an infrastructure bill in Congress which was set for a vote possibly later in the morning session.
What yields are doing
-
The 10-year Treasury note yields
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.322%
1.316%, holding steady compared with 3 p.m. Eastern Time on Monday. -
The 30-year Treasury bond yields
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1.959%
1.960%, versus 1.962% a day ago. -
The 2-year Treasury note yields
TMUBMUSD02Y,
0.228%
0.224%, compared with 0.220% on Monday.
What’s driving the market?
The Senate could pass the $1 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill later Tuesday. The proposal includes $550 billion in spending on transportation, utilities and broadband internet.
The spending package is likely to be parsed for further details on how it might add to federal debt and impact Treasury borrowing to help cover the costs of the infrastructure initiatives which could nudge yields higher.
Yields Tuesday were little changed though after ending higher on the back of another record showing for U.S. job openings, which rose to a record 10.1 million in June from a revised 9.5 million in the prior month, the Labor Department said Monday.
Investors may also be waiting for the U.S. July consumer price index data due Wednesday, with the July producer price index due Thursday.
Looking ahead Tuesday though, fixed-income investors will watch for a report on nonfarm productivity and labor costs for the second quarter at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time, as well as an auction of $58 billion in 3-year Treasurys
TMUBMUSD03Y,
at midday.
Separately, Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester is slated to speak, about inflation and risks, later in the day at a virtual event later Tuesday. Chicago Fed president, Charles Evans, speaks at 2:30 p.m. ET to discuss the economy and monetary policy.
What analysts are saying
“In addition, a period of consolidation in the wake of a significant repricing is a very typical trading pattern in Treasuries. The process of establishing a volume bulge around the 200-day moving-average is ultimately constructive on the prospects for the bullish tone to be retained,” wrote BMO Capital Markets strategists Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery in a Tuesday research note.
“Moreover, the market is as likely to be setting the upper bound of the new yield range as it is to be on the cusp of triggering convexity flows that will propel rates back into the prior zone. In fact, we’ll continue to err on the side of the former and suspect justification for higher yields won’t be in the offing until after Labor Day—when investors’ have a better sense of the back to school, back to the office dynamic,” the analysts wrote.
