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Bloomberg The U.S. trade deficit has been sinking lately, but the trend is unlikely to last.
The numbers: The nation’s trade deficit in goods fell sharply in November for the second month in a row and touched the lowest level in more than two years, but it’s probably not enough to prevent the annual gap in 2019 from being the largest in 11 years.
The trade gap in goods fell 5.4% to $63.2 billion in November from a revised $66.8 billion in the prior month, according to advanced figures released by the government.
The trade deficit has experienced repeated ups and downs during a two-year trade war with China as companies sought to time orders around the imposition or termination of tariffs. Yet the overall trade deficit itself has continued to creep higher
Read: Wall Street doubts grow as U.S. and China struggle to finish off ‘skinny’ trade deal
What happened: Goods imports slid 1.3% in November to $199.6 billion. The U.S. imported fewer farm, consumer and industrial goods in November.
Exports of U.S. goods, meanwhile, rose 0.7% to $136.4 billion. The U.S. exported more crops, autos and industrial supplies.
Most trading between countries involves goods such as autos, airplanes, oil, chemicals, electronics, clothing and the like.
The full November trade report comes out next week and includes services. The U.S. has run a surplus for years in services such as banking, tourism and entertainment, but they reflect a smaller portion of overall trade.
The advanced report also showed no change in wholesale inventories in November and a 0.7% gain in retail inventories.
The advanced figures suggest gross domestic product could be somewhat higher in the fourth quarter than Wall Street has been forecasting.
Big picture: The sharp decline in the trade deficit for the second month in a row came as a big surprise, but it doesn’t really change the overall picture. The U.S. has run large trade deficits for years despite on-and-off efforts by Washington to rein them in.
While the Trump administration’s tough stance toward China has cause imports from that country to decline, imports from other countries have risen.
Market reaction: The Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.08% and S&P 500 SPX, +0.00% were set to open higher in Monday trades.
Read: It’s great the stock market is setting records, but it’s not because economy is great
The 10-year Treasury yield TMUBMUSD10Y, +2.85% edged up to 1.93%.
