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The numbers:The Chicago Fed’s national activity index rose to a record high of 4.11 in June from the prior record of 3.5 hit in the prior month. The index has been extremely volatile – falling to a record-low negative 17.89 in April. The index’s three-month moving average, which tries to smooth this volatility, moved up to negative 3.49 in June from a negative 6.36 in the prior month.
What happened: The Chicago Fed index is a weighted average of 85 economic indicators. Fifty-four indicators made positive contributions in June while 31 were negative.
A zero value for the index indicates the national economy is expanding at its historic trend rate of growth.
Production-related indicators contributed 2.22 points to the index, up from 0.84 in May. The contribution of sales moved down to negative 0.24 in June from 0.04 in the prior month. Employment-related indicators contributed 1.74 in June, up slightly from 1.73 in May.
Big picture: For economists, June is in the rear view mirror. They are more worried about recent signs the economy is running out of steam again as coronavirus cases surge.
Market reaction: Futures indicated that stocks would open higher on Tuesday on news on a European coronavirus aid package. On Monday, the S&P 500 SPX, +0.84% was up 27.11 points to 3,268.75.
