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The investment bank noted that terminal prices printed new contract highs near $10,500/t on ICE (N4 basis) on Friday in advance of the first quarter grindings reports printing later this month.
The bank has lifted its 0-3m point NY cocoa price target from $10,000/t to $12,500/t.
“We are bearish cal’25 but would change our assessment for a steep price unwind into next year if the s/d fundamentals deteriorate further (e.g. either much stronger grindings or steeper WAF supply losses),” wrote analysts at Citi.
“Our base case remains that prices will generally peak in 2Q and could enter a bear market by early 2025 (e.g. 20% downside versus forwards),” they concluded.
