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Laying bare what could be the harsh reality of travel in the age of Covid-19, the U.K. government has announced plans to impose a 14-day quarantine on most international travelers.
Airlines and travel stocks fell sharply on Monday, a day after Prime Minister Boris Johnson made reference to the new restrictions in a televised address. The government’s “Covid-19 Recovery Strategy,” released Monday, said a handful of visitors would be exempt — those bringing supplies into the country, supporting critical infrastructure, for example, and the French.
Read: U.K. sets out lockdown easing plan with ‘homemade’ face masks, return to work, and social ‘bubbles’
Apart from self-isolating for 14 days upon arrival, travelers would need to supply contact and accommodation information, and be urged to download the government’s contact-tracing app. The quarantine will begin as soon as possible, the document said. Most measures will not kick in until May 13 — the start of step one of the government’s post-coronavirus strategy to get the country up and running.
Shares in budget airline EasyJet EZJ, -5.90% slid 9% on Monday, after Citigroup analysts said it would have to raise up to £1 billion ($1.2 billion) due in part to an expected rush of customers seeking refunds. While U.K. travelers weren’t mentioned, it’s assumed that anyone leaving the country and coming back in might also be required to quarantine, although Johnson said the government will make an exception for visitors to and from France.
“Ministers are effectively telling people they can no longer travel for the foreseeable future and airlines will respond to that by grounding their operations,” Tim Alderslade, CEO of Airlines UK, the industry association representing UK-registered carriers, said in a statement.
The United Nation’s World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) has forecast that international travel could drop by 60-80% this year, putting millions of jobs at risk.
The U.K. isn’t the first to consider such pandemic-related measures for visitors. Hong Kong requires a 14-day quarantine of all visitors, while Austria is offering a 190 euro coronavirus test for incoming travelers who can’t prove they are disease free, and don’t want to self-quarantine for two weeks.
Struggling with its own coronavirus outbreak, the U.S., for example, has a ban in place for foreign nationals who have visited China, Iran and many European Union countries, and has advised its own citizens not to travel.
“It’s easy to put in place these restrictive measures, but it’s harder to take them away,” aviation analyst Paul Charles told MarketWatch, as he criticized the U.K.’s quarantine plans. He said the industry’s big concern is that there is no real end date to the measures, and further uncertainty means many will delay booking travel for business or leisure.
Fleets of airlines have been grounded for weeks, with job losses expected to pile up. Virgin Atlantic, founded by entrepreneur Sir Richard Branson, and 49% owned by U.S. airline Delta DAL, -2.54%, has warned that it may cut 30% of staff and is battling for survival, and British Airways has said 12,000 jobs may go.
Charles said rather than quarantines, major airports need to coordinate globally to screen passengers, as they have the space to handle it. “Medical technology is getting better so that results can come back more quickly,” he said, adding that social distancing on airplanes makes no sense because airlines won’t make enough money by half filling planes.
Charles, chief executive officer of the PC agency and former communications director at Virgin Atlantic, said the World Travel and Tourism Council is expected to start unveiling global measures and standards to help the industry get back on its feet on Tuesday.
“One thing for certain is domestic travel will do very well in many markets. People will want to stay close to home, trusting in their countries own medical resources and infrastructure,” he said.
