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Who doesn’t want to own a stock that doubles in a month?
Tesla TSLA, +2.90% did just that, soaring to almost $1,000.
Still, it has not been an easy stock to analyze. Investors face a twin set of difficulties. First, many smart people are divided into two camps — permabulls and permabears. Most longtime investors have learned from experience that it is dangerous to follow either. Second, the stock has a history of big moves owing to the mechanics of the stock market, such as short squeezes and money flows.
What if there were a method that, just before the big move this week, ranked Tesla as the No. 1 technology stock? Well, there is such a method. A more important question for investors is: What is this method saying about Tesla’s stock now?
Let’s explore the topic with the help of a chart.
Chart
Please click here for an annotated chart of Tesla.
Note the following:
• The chart shows a vicious short squeeze in Tesla stock.
To understand the ebb and flow of new “shorts,” please click here for an annotated intraday chart.
To understand different legs of the short squeeze on a longer time frame, please click here for an annotated day chart.
For the sake of transparency, both of the charts were previously published and no changes have been made. To learn more, please see “A perfect combination for Tesla’s stock gains — future fantasies, short selling and FOMO.”
• The chart shows when the ZYX Change Method ranked Tesla No. 1 on a non-risk-adjusted basis. At that time, Tesla stock was trading at $479. The ranking was higher than popular technology stocks such as Apple AAPL, +1.05%, Amazon AMZN, +0.51% and Google parent company Alphabet GOOG, +1.74% GOOGL, +1.89%. The ranking was also higher than the momo (momentum) crowd’s favorite semiconductor stocks such as AMD AMD, -1.08% and Nvidia NVDA, +1.05%.
• Subsequent to the original call, the ranking was published on MarketWatch. Please see “Something rare is happening among popular technology stocks.”
• The chart shows that in less than a month, Tesla stock doubled at its peak before pulling back.
• The chart shows that, subsequent to being ranked No. 1, Tesla reported game-changing earnings.
• The chart shows a short squeeze that carried Tesla to new highs after investors digested the earnings report.
• The chart shows an “evening star” pattern. Typically this pattern means a short-term top.
• The chart shows the support zone for Tesla. This support zone is based on money flows. If Tesla pulls back into this support zone, new buyers are likely to jump into the stock. On the other hand, if the support zone is broken, new short sellers are likely to jump into Tesla stock.
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What does the method say now?
The ZYX Change Method is still ranking Tesla stock as No. 1 on a non-risk-adjusted basis.
The Arora Report also publishes relative rankings of the 11 popular tech stocks on a risk-adjusted basis. These ranks are based on the six screens of the ZYX Change Method.
Risk-adjusted rankings are more useful for medium- and long-term positions. Non-risk-adjusted rankings are more useful for short-term or trade-around positions, especially for aggressive investors.
Conundrum
There is an interesting conundrum. While Tesla stock ranks highest on a non-risk-adjusted basis among 11 popular tech stocks, the ZYX Change Method ranks Tesla last on a risk-adjusted basis.
Keep an eye on the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA, +0.30% for momentum reversals, and see if Tesla’s stock momentum also reverses. If the stock market goes down and Tesla stock does not, that would be a positive tell.
There you have it — it comes down to how much risk you want to take. As time passes, Tesla stock will become more attractive on a risk-adjusted basis. For most investors, when such a signal is given, that will be the time buy Tesla.
Disclosure: Subscribers to The Arora Report may have positions in the securities mentioned in this article or may take positions at any time. Nigam Arora is an investor, engineer and nuclear physicist by background who has founded two Inc. 500 fastest-growing companies. He is the founder of The Arora Report, which publishes four newsletters. Nigam can be reached at Nigam@TheAroraReport.com.
