The Margin: As Hurricane Idalia nears Florida, people are also tracking the ‘Waffle House Index’

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While the state of Florida braces for Hurricane Idalia, locals won’t just be looking for updates from local officials or the Weather Channel’s leading man Jim Cantore. They’ll also be watching their local Waffle House. 

That’s because the restaurant chain is famous for dishing food 24/7, 365 days a year. And it is considered so well-equipped for natural disasters that former Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) director Craig Fugate, who once ran Florida’s Division of Emergency Management, famously coined the term “Waffle House Index” to determine the severity of storms. 

In short: Waffle House almost never closes. So when it does, area residents know that the situation is serious. In fact, by early Tuesday evening, “Is Waffle House closing for Hurricane Idalia” was a breakout Google query, meaning searches had spiked more than 5,000% over the previous 24 hours. Searches for “Waffle House Index” and “Waffle House hurricane” were also climbing, according to Google Trends data.

The informal Waffle House Index states that: 

  • If a Waffle House is open and serving a full menu, storm damage is likely minimal, and the index is green. 

  • If a Waffle House is open but dishing a limited menu, the area is probably suffering issues like power outages or no running water, and the index is yellow. 

  • If a Waffle House location is forced to close, the index is red, meaning the area was severely hit and struggling to recover.

Or, as this viral TikTok from last summer put it: “The Waffle House closed? Let’s get out of here.”

And as Washington Post op-ed writer Holly Figueroa O’Reilly also tweeted last year ahead of Hurricane Ian hitting Florida, which spurred 21 area Waffle Houses to shut their doors: “Florida doesn’t start panicking about hurricanes until the Waffle House closes.” 

The restaurant chain was not immediately available for comment on Tuesday. But last fall, when Waffle House closed over 20 Florida restaurants for Hurricane Ian, Njeri Boss, vice president of public relations at Waffle House, told MarketWatch that the Waffle House Index was created by FEMA’s former director “as a simple way to help FEMA workers assess the damage to a community after a hurricane hits and it is safe to return to the area.”

But Boss added that people shouldn’t refer to any Waffle House Index for directions on what to do ahead of an approaching storm. “We would hope that residents heed the warnings of their local government officials and take the necessary precautions to stay safe,” said Boss.

The Gulf Coast was keeping a close watch on Hurricane Idalia on Tuesday, as forecasts warning the storm will strengthen into “an extremely dangerous major hurricane” before hitting Florida on Wednesday morning. More than 20 counties have issued evacuation orders. President Joe Biden and Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis have declared a state of emergency for Florida, and Biden tweeted that FEMA has already pre-deployed personnel and assets to the state. The Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) also tweeted that it is re-routing aircraft and closing Gulf routes ahead of Hurricane Idalia’s expected landfall. 

But as some people identifying as Floridians and Southerners have joked on social media platforms like TikTok and X, they won’t panic until either the Weather Channel’s Cantore arrives in their neighborhood, or, their nearest Waffle House closes. 

Or, both.

“Until the meteorologist starts rolling up their sleeves, Jim Cantore shows up or Waffle House closes there is no need to panic,” tweeted one woman.

“If [Cantore’s] there and Waffle House is shut down.. say your prayers,” chimed in another.

Associated Press contributed

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