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Goldman Sachs analyst Mark Delaney has made a case for opening Tesla’s Supercharger network to all EV drivers.
The network is the largest in the US and one of the largest globally with about 35,000 connectors. Delaney estimates that “utilization across the Supercharger network in the US by Tesla drivers is in the mid to high single digits range on average during the day.”
While it is currently available only to Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) owners, Delaney argues the EV company could generate sizeable revenue with strong incremental margins if it decides to make the network accessible to all EV drivers.
“While opening the network could limit the reasons to buy a Tesla vs. another EV and is a key risk, it would bring more potential customers into the Tesla ecosystem and create a new revenue stream, especially at a time when there is a long wait time for new Tesla vehicle deliveries,” Delaney told clients in a note.
Tesla said recently that it is aiming to triple the size of its global network that could see the Supercharger network growing to 90,000 by late 2023/2024. If this scenario materializes, Delaney sees a multi-billion revenue opportunity for the EV giant.
“We estimate that the incremental revenue opportunity could be $1-$3 bn in a few years from opening up the network (although Tesla wouldn’t necessarily capture all of this) with relatively modest capex needs beyond what it would otherwise spend, and drive $0.15-$0.75 of incremental EPS. Moreover, we believe the SAM over the next 10-20 years would be substantially higher as the global vehicle fleet shifts to BEVs,” the analyst concluded.
