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Pfizer (NYSE:PFE) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy with its price target cut to $47 from $55 by UBS analysts on Thursday.
The analysts told investors in a research note that the downgrade is based on COVID-related headwinds and their view that Pfizer’s pipeline is “not quite ready for prime time.”
“We see further downward pressure on COVID consensus estimates driven by: 1) declining/stabilizing COVID case counts and decreasing severity of variants (reflected by lower hospitalizations), 2) sufficient Paxlovid inventory in US to cover ’23 demand by our estimates, and 3) uncertainty of China market outlook (though we acknowledge the upside potential given sizable private market),” they explained.
As a result, UBS cut its 2023 COVID franchise estimates to $19.4 billion from $34.5B, with Paxlovid at $7.2B from $15B and Comirnaty at $12.2B from $19.5B.
“On the pipeline side, following PFE’s R&D day, we reviewed our pipeline estimates but did not make any meaningful changes (other than breaking out a few assets specifically from our general pipeline bucket). We would also highlight PFE has approx $16-18bn in revenue exposed to loss-of-exclusivity between 2025-2030. We currently model 3 and 5 year top-line CAGRs of -11% and -8%, vs. consensus at -12% and -8%, respectively,” the analysts added.
