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In ordinary times, the notion that history is contingent — that it can move in different directions that cannot be known in advance and that no particular outcome is inevitable — seems like an abstraction. In times like these, it is easier to understand what it means.
We do not know what comes next, we cannot know for sure as we live through each day’s news. That can be frightening or energizing, encouraging or overwhelming.
One way to try to make sense of it — while recognizing that none of us can say with certainty what comes next — is to try to map out some possible outcomes. This can help give us a sense of what may be possible — both the good and the bad.
“ Although we cannot control what others do, we can choose what we do — and what we do (or do not do) can make various outcomes more or less likely. Will we speak up? Will we vote? Will we participate in political campaigns? ”
History did not begin today, this week, or even this year, of course. It’s worth recalling, for instance, where we stood four years ago. Donald Trump was promising, if elected president, to build a wall on the southern border that Mexico would pay for. Trump built a campaign based on open racism (as acknowledged even by then-Speaker of the House Paul Ryan, a Republican).
Candidate Trump exhibited clear authoritarian warning signs — indications that he did not think ordinary norms, rules, and laws applied to him, and that he could do as he pleased if elected, without limitation, without the checks and balances we ordinarily expect in our constitutional system.
We were told, however, to take Trump seriously, but not literally. Trump suggested that there was no downside in voting for him, asking African Americans in particular: “what do you have to lose?” by voting for him.
Very few African Americans did vote for Trump — in fact, he failed to gain a majority, or even a plurality of the overall popular vote. But he was elected president.
Dangerous or promising?
Now, we live in a country at a crossroads — one both dangerous and promising at the same time. As president, Trump has threatened to use the military to “dominate” Americans. Secretary of Defense Mike Esper echoed Trump’s language, referring to American cities and towns as “battlespaces” to be “dominated.”
Last week, Trump walked across Lafayette Square as the smell of gas lingered in the air. He awkwardly raised a Bible as he stood outside a church where presidents have worshiped for 200 years. Armed forces (their provenance still not 100% clear) had used chemical agents, rubber bullets, and other forms of violence to clear the square for Trump’s now infamous photo op.
Former Secretary of Defense James Mattis, who resigned in 2018, denounced the administration’s actions as a violation of Americans’ constitutional rights, declaring that “we must reject [the notion of] our cities as a ‘battlespace’ that our uniformed military is called upon to ‘dominate.’”
Mattis observed what has been plain to see for years — that Trump has no interest in uniting Americans, only in trying to divide us along racial and religious lines. Another retired general, John Allen, warned that Trump’s actions “may well signal the beginning of the end of the American experiment” in democracy.
What the future may bring
What comes next? Allen’s warning points to just one of multiple possibilities. Although no one can say for sure, it’s worth thinking through at least some of the other plausible scenarios in order to get a sense of precisely how high the stakes are and what we can do in an effort to influence the outcome. These events are not necessarily mutually exclusive: more than one may well occur as events unfold in the weeks and months to come:
• Trump continues searching for a polarizing theme to define his campaign and energize his base, like the southern border wall and xenophobia from 2016. It is clear that Trump would like to cast protesters in the role of Latin American immigrants — but, so far, it is not clear this will save Trump politically (a similar effort did not succeed in the 2018 midterm elections).
• Some of this depends on whether protests turn violent in a sustained way — or can effectively be described as violent, whether or not they really are, and whether or not it is the protesters themselves who are violent, or perceived as violent. Trump, and anyone hoping to see him re-elected, may have an incentive to fan the flames.
• Relatedly, Trump could look to take advantage of any external threats to the United States — for instance, by returning to his nuclear brinksmanship with North Korea, the trade war with China, or a dangerous back and forth with Iran. If there is a terrorist attack or other attack against the United States, Trump could look to exploit this by arguing that he alone can keep Americans safe — whether or not such a claim is based in reality.
Have Americans had enough?
• If history moves in a different direction, it is possible that we are a point of dramatic positive change—that Americans have had enough when it comes to racism, including in its deadliest forms, as seen for instance in the police and vigilante killings of George Floyd, Breonna Taylor, Ahmaud Arbery, and many others.
• African Americans reached this point long, long ago, of course—but as the reality of racism becomes impossible for most Americans to deny or minimize, it is possible this is a moment when significant, meaningful change can occur. This is, of course, by no means guaranteed—but the kind of large, sustained protests we are seeing show no sign of letting up and offer the long overdue promise that America can move closer to making its highest ideals a reality for all people.
• Trump’s best efforts to create a narrative on his preferred terms could come to nothing if the coronavirus pandemic continues or gets worse. Have we hit a plateau (and if so, is that a good thing)? Are things getting significantly better, with more Americans returning to something like a normal routine? Will there be a new wave in the fall? What will economic numbers look like in the next few months — and, if they improve, will that help Trump politically?
The election
• Will more Republicans and conservatives condemn Trump or even, as in Colin Powell’s case, endorse Joe Biden? If this does happen — if people with household names like George W. Bush, Mitt Romney, and Lisa Murkowski endorse the Democratic candidate — will that have an impact on the election?
• Who will Biden choose as his running mate, and will she strengthen his position and energize the Democratic base?
• Will there be presidential debates — and, if so, in what format, with what (if any) effect on the race?
• What will the party conventions look like, where will the Republican convention take place, and will the conventions have any effect on the race?
• Will Trump be able to hold public rallies? If so, will this energize both Trump’s base and the president? If not, will this be a problem for Trump politically?
• How will the election itself play out? Will people feel safe voting in person? Will there be an opportunity for those who do not feel safe to vote by mail? Will Republican voter suppression efforts have an effect (consider the recent Wisconsin election, where they did not help Republican candidates)?
• If Trump loses, what will happen if he refuses to accept the results? How would Republican elites response to any effort by Trump to ignore election results? What happens if Trump threatens to deploy the military either before or after the election?
• Will any of these possible events— or others not discussed here — change the path of what has, so far, been a historically steady race, with Biden consistently holding a small but potentially significant lead?
It may seem overwhelming to consider these various possible futures. We may feel impotent to shape the outcome. Yet, we are not. We need not be passive observers.
Although we cannot control what others do, we can choose what we do — and what we do (or do not do) can make various outcomes more or less likely. Will we speak up? Will we vote? Will we participate in political campaigns?
James Madison suggested that the people are the primary check on government power. Our action or inaction, individually and collectively, will be the most important factor in charting an uncertain path and determining which of various possible futures becomes our reality.
