Merck shares gain, Citi upgrades to buy as estimates ahead of consensus

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Merck (NYSE:MRK) was lifted to Buy from Neutral, with its price target raised to $130 from $105 by Citi analysts on Thursday.

The analysts said the firm’s new estimates are 2-25% ahead of consensus, while their NPV “assumes a very conservative Keytruda tail post-2028.”

Merck shares have climbed 1% to just under the $115 mark at the time of writing. In addition, the stock has gained 3% in 2023 and is up over 33% in the last 12 months.

“Our earnings upgrades are driven by materially revised forecasts for MRK’s novel ADC for cancer MK-2870/SKB-264 (TROP2), and cardiology agents sotatercept and MK-0616 (CV Data Meets Our High Expectations., Mar-23),” the analysts wrote.

“Each 12-month delay to Keytruda biosimilars represents a c.7% increase in NPV.”

They also noted that Merck’s portfolio has little IRA-related pricing risk, given rare disease, animal health, and vaccines exposure.