Market Snapshot: Dow falls over 400 points as long-term Treasury yields near highest levels in a dozen years  

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U.S. stocks were sharply lower Tuesday, led by technology stocks, as long-term Treasury yields remained near their highest levels in a dozen years or more, the dollar climbed for a 5th day to a ten month high, and consumer confidence slumped.

What’s happening

  • The Dow Jones Industrial Average
    DJIA
    was down 408 points, or 1.2%, to 33,595.

  • The S&P 500
    SPX
    was down 62 points, or 1.4%, to 4,276.

  • The Nasdaq Composite
    COMP
    declined 193 points, or 1.5%, to 13,077.

Stocks on Monday snapped a four-day losing streak, with the Dow gaining around 43 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 increased 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.5%. Major benchmarks remain on track for September losses, with the S&P 500 extending a pullback from its 2023 high set at the end of July.

What’s driving markets

The prospect of interest rates staying higher well into next year again pressured equity valuations, especially in the technology sector.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield rose a couple of basis points to near 4.57% early Tuesday, the highest since 2007, before pulling back, as the market continued to price in hawkish interest rate projections from the Federal Reserve.

See: ‘It’s pretty dire,’ John Hancock strategist says of sentiment on Wall Street as bond yields march higher

Many Fed officials in recent days have reiterated they believe the central bank will need to increase rates again and keep them at elevated levels for some time to quell inflation.

Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase warned the market is not ready for interest rates that could go to 7% if inflationary pressures are not sufficiently contained.

Worries that higher interest rates are beginning to affect the U.S. consumer are contributing to market weakness, said David Rosenberg, president of Toronto-based Rosenberg Research, in a Tuesday note.

And the stock market faces other “more durable shocks coming from the breakout in the U.S. dollar, a margin-squeeze from the latest spike in oil prices, and the relentless run-up in market interest rates,” he wrote. “Plus, we are in a shift from fiscal stimulus towards restraint, especially when it comes to how this affects the consumer sector.”

Higher Treasury yields relative to their international peers have lifted the U.S. dollar, with the dollar index
DXY
moving above 106, to its highest in about 10 months. A surging dollar can also act as a headwind for U.S. equities, partly by making multinationals less competitive.

In U.S. economic news, the Conference Board’s closely followed consumer-confidence index fell to a four-month low of 103.0 in September, reflecting angst about rising interest rates, still-high inflation and a budget stalemate in Washington, as well as consternation about high gasoline prices.

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-city house price index rose 0.9% in July, as compared with the previous month. Prices were up for the sixth month in a row. On a year-over-year basis, home prices in the 20 major metro markets in the U.S. were up 0.1%. A broader measure of home prices, the national index, rose on a month-over-month basis in July by 0.6%, but rose 1% over the past year. All numbers are seasonally adjusted.

Separately, the Commerce Department said U.S. new-home sales fell 8.7% to an annual rate of 675,000 in August, from a revised 739,000 in the prior month.

Also, not helping the mood was nervousness across Asian bourses amid increased worries about China’s property sector. Shares in China Evergrande HK:3333 plunged afresh after the heavily indebted developer missed a debt payment and former executives were detained by the authorities. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index fell 1.4% to its lowest since November.

Companies in focus

— Jamie Chisholm contributed.

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