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President Donald Trump and first lady Melania Trump greet Ivanka Trump as they arrive on the South Lawn of the White House on the fourth day of the Republican National Convention last week.
Evan Vucci/Associated Press
The largest election bet of this campaign cycle was placed on President Donald Trump to win another four-year term, according to U.K. exchange Betfair.
Betfair said a £50,000 ($67,300) bet was placed on Trump, which, if he’s re-elected, would pay out £104,000. Over £1 million was staked in the last 24 hours.
Trump has closed the gap against his competitor Joe Biden, the former vice president, in betting markets. On Tuesday afternoon, there was a roughly even chance Biden would win, and slightly more than an even bet on a Trump victory. Those are Biden’s longest odds since June 5. He has had a polling lead for months nationally and in virtually all swing states.
The narrowing of the gap in betting markets comes after the Democratic and Republican conventions; recent violence in Kenosha, Wis., and Portland, Ore.; a downturn in U.S. COVID-19 infections, even as U.S. cases clear the 6 million mark; and a rise in the stock market SPX, +0.31%.
It should be noted that the betting market is far less liquid than financial markets, which to a degree are implied bets on election outcomes. More money has exchanged hands on the London Stock Exchange for Betfair’s parent company, Flutter Entertainment FLTR, -2.14%, on Tuesday than on its presidential-election market.
Nate Silver, the editor in chief of the statistics site FiveThirtyEight, tweeted it’s “insane” to think that polls are erroneous to a degree that would eliminate Biden’s current six- to seven-point lead in aggregated national polling because of so-called shy Trump voters.
