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The analyst sees that the recent bookings momentum, driven by AD/CVD investigation, provides strong volume/pricing visibility through 2024.
“We view ’22 as a trough margin year and see the potential for improving COGS as logistics normalize, new contracting structures de-risking margins manifest in ’23/’24, and startup expenses associated with facility construction subside,” Harrison said in a client note.
The analyst forecasts that revenues and EBITDA could go from $2.4/$0.1B in ’22 to $4.3/$1.2B by ’24.
“Our upgrade is not a call on a tariff outcome as FSLR could have pricing/volume visibility through much of ’25 by the time a preliminary tariff is announced in August. Finally, FSLR possesses option value if an energy bill is passed (lower probability… excluded from valuation). At 4.5x ’24 EV/EBITDA with $1.1B of net cash expected at YE’22, we like FSLR’s lower risk multi-year earnings growth outlook,” Harrison added.
FSLR shares are down over 30% YTD.
By Senad Karaahmetovic
