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The numbers: The U.S. leading economic index fell 0.3 % in January, after a 0.8% drop in the prior month, the Conference Board said Friday
The decline was in line with forecasts of economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
The LEI is a gauge of 10 indicators designed to show whether the economy is getting better or worse. The index was down 0.8% in December.
The index is now down 3.6% over the last six months, a steeper decline than the prior six-month period.
Key details: A measure of current economic conditions rose 0.2% in January. The so-called ‘lagging’ index —a look of sorts in the rearview mirror — also rose 0.2%.
Big picture: Fears of a recession have eased after the Labor Department estimated that the economy added 517,000 jobs in January. But Ataman Ozyildirim, senior director, economics, at the Conference Board, said the firm “still expects high inflation, rising interest rates and contracting consumer spending to tip the U.S. economy into recession in 2023.”
What are they saying? “The leading index is far from a perfect guide, but on past form it points to a roughly 1% contraction in U.S. GDP by the second half of the year,” said Michael Pearce, U.S. economist at Oxford Economics.
Market reaction: U.S. stocks
DJIA,
SPX,
were lower at lunchtime on Friday as the market digested prospects of higher interest rates. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD30Y,
inched down after hitting the highest level so far this year on Thursday.
