This post was originally published on this site
Millions of people are losing their jobs and unemployment is soaring. The mounting devastation to the economy from the coronavirus is becoming starkly visible to households across the nation. Here’s what to watch in the next few weeks as the damage reports come in.
Initial jobless claims are set to soar again next Thursday, perhaps exceeding a record-shattering 3.3 million spike last week. The computer systems and unemployment offices of some states such as New York, California and New Jersey were overwhelmed, meaning new claims were underreported.
Read: Record surge in the number of Americans getting laid off is just getting underway
Also: New jobless claims surge the most in Pennsylvania—but barely rise in Utah
New jobless claims are a rough approximation of how many people are losing their jobs. If next week’s report hits 5 million, as some economists predict, the job losses in the past two weeks alone could be equal to the entire 2007-09 recession.
Read: ‘I am scared of losing my income, my shop and my home’ — businesses fear for future
As a result, the total number of people receiving unemployment benefits could soon blow past the prior record of 6.6 million in 2009.
The day before the jobless claims report, a survey of top executives in the manufacturing industry is likely to tumble. The closely watched Institute for Supply Management index is expected to dip below the 50% cutoff mark and into recessionary territory.
Read: Trump weighs whether coronavirus-induced shutdown doing ‘more harm than good’
Manufacturers are actually holding up better than service-oriented companies whose businesses have been closed or sharply curtailed, but they are also taking a big hit. Consumers and businesses are sure to cut back on the purchase of big-ticket items such as cars, appliances and airplanes to conserve cash.
The index of consumer confidence, meanwhile, fell sharply in March as expected. Other measures that have been taking the temperature of consumers, such as Morning Consult’s daily tracker, have also plunged.
Read: Why Friday’s jobs report for March won’t tell the full story of a plummeting economy
The government’s official employment report in March could be a funky one. Most surveys of business establishments were completed in the first two weeks of the month before the viral outbreak caused much of the economy to seize up.
It is possible March could show the first decline in employment since 2010, but the April report a month later is going to be the one that shows an unprecedented deterioration in the labor market.
