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Bank of America analysts said in a note Monday that there is downside risk for the S&P 500 to the low-3800s and then mid-3600s.
“It happened very quickly. Supports held, and then they did not,” the analysts told clients. “The SPX broken down from a January into March head and shoulders top. Sustaining the loss of 3945-3928 (100-day MA, 200-day MA, pattern neckline, and the 3/2 low) keeps this pattern in place with downside risk to the low 3800s (measured move) and then mid 3600s (pattern count).”
They added that the S&P 500 breakdown “exposes the 200-week MA and 2022 lows.”
They pointed to the fact that the S&P 500 closed below its 40-week MA last week after eight consecutive weekly closes above it, which had suggested an improving cyclical trend in early 2023.
“The SPX failed spectacularly, closing below its risk management supports at the 13, 26, and 40-week MAs from 3973 to 3902. This also broke the uptrend line from October and the downtrend line from January 2022. Sustaining this breakdown exposes the 2022 lows at 3764 (December), 3636 (June), 3584 (September), and 3491 (October) and the rising 200-week near 3725 to downside risk,” wrote the analysts.
“The prior weekly lows from early March and late February near 3928-3943 offer resistance along with the 40-week MA near 3932. Last week’s lower high at 4078 is resistance ahead of the February highs at 4160-4195.”
