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Shares of CSX Corp. (NASDAQ:CSX) and Norfolk Southern (NYSE:NSC) were upgraded from Hold to Buy at Stifel on Friday by analyst Benjamin Nolan.
Nolan, who lowered CSX’s price target to $37 per share from $39 and Norfolk to $275 from $289 per share, told investors that rail equities have “re-rated and are now at much more attractive multiples relative to what had been anticipated earnings power.”
However, he acknowledged that the current macroeconomic climate could impact the sector.
“Moving into a softer macroeconomic environment and perhaps a recession, the volumes, prices, and ultimately earnings and cash flows of the rails could be impacted,” wrote Nolan. “However, relative to previous cycles, we believe rails should be better insulated as persistently higher fuel prices should enable share gains over trucking. In addition, rails should capture share on currently underutilized carload business being impacted by supply chain congestion.”
He also said that insulated does not mean immune and the rails, like various other sectors, are also “contending with higher wages and regulatory costs.”
“While we are generally making cuts to estimates on lower growth and higher OR, given the substantial selloff in equities and our view for a modest recession impact on the rails, we are upgrading some of the cheapest names (CSX & NSC) from Hold to Buy.”
