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Treasury yields moved slightly lower Monday, with investors awaiting this week’s round of closely watched economic data, including the August consumer price index reading.
What are yields doing?
-
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
TMUBMUSD10Y,
1.329%
was at 1.334%, compared with 1.34% at 3 p.m. Eastern on Friday. Yields and debt prices move in opposite directions. -
The 2-year Treasury note yield
TMUBMUSD02Y,
0.216%
was at 0.217%, unchanged from its level late Friday. -
The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond
TMUBMUSD30Y,
1.912%
fell to 1.922% versus 1.933% late Monday.
What’s driving the market?
Treasury yields were largely rangebound last week as investors continued to monitor signals from Federal Reserve officials over when the central bank will begin scaling back asset purchases.
The economic calendar is light on Monday, featuring August budget data at 2 p.m. Eastern. Tuesday brings the August CPI reading. Data on August retail sales and the latest reading of the University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index are also due this week.
The Wall Street Journal last week reported that Federal Reserve officials could begin setting the stage for the tapering of its monthly bond purchase program of $120 billion in Treasurys and mortgage-backed securities at its Sept. 21-22 meeting, with an announcement of its plans at the following meeting in early November.
Read: When the Fed finally steps back, can the U.S. stock and bond markets stand on their own legs?
The European Central Bank last week announced it would slow asset purchases under its Pandemic Emergency Purchase Program, or PEPP, while maintaining the pace of buying under its other longer-running asset purchasing program. ECB President Christine Lagarde argued the move was a “recalibration” rather than a “tapering.”
See: ‘The lady isn’t tapering,’ says Lagarde as ECB slows asset purchases
Analysts said the focus for Europe now turns to December, when the ECB will likely need to make a decision over the longer term fate of its PEPP purchases, which are scheduled to run at least until the end of March.
U.S. stock-index futures were pointing to a higher start for equities. The Dow Jones Industrial Average
DJIA,
and the S&P 500
SPX,
have fallen for five straight sessions.
What are analysts saying?
Rates markets “will be closely watching” CPI, retail sales and the University of Michigan data this week, wrote analysts at UniCredit, in a note.
“One key element to watch will be the movement in real yields and breakevens. Last week, break-even rates increased and real yields declined further in both Europe and the U.S., with both movements much more pronounced in the eurozone,” they wrote. “This suggests that concerns on the growth outlook persist, while investors expect inflation to remain high for the time being.”
