Amazon: Prime Early Access GMV Likely Down 25% Relative to July's Prime Day – BofA

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Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) announced yesterday that Prime members ordered over 100 million items with Apple AirPods (2nd Generation) and Macbook Air M1s, Peloton Bikes, and Bose headphones among the most popular items.

“Our Prime Early Access Sale was a great kickoff to the holidays, and the best part is that it’s only the beginning. Customers will find millions of must-have deals throughout the season that will help them continue to save money on gifts for loved ones,” said Doug Herrington, CEO of Amazon Worldwide Stores.

Bank of America analysts estimate $8 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) for the 2-day event, down from the $10.7 billion Amazon recorded in GMV for the July event.

“Based on our projection for $185.7bn in 4Q’22 Amazon total GMV, we estimate that Prime Day could represent approximately 4% of GMV for the quarter (vs 7% in July), and contribute 2.3pts to Y/Y growth, less than July’s contribution at 6pts. For revenues, assuming a 30% take rate for 3P, we estimate $5.7bn in revenue, vs. $7.5bn in July,” the analysts said in a client note.

The analysts also note that Twitter mentions of the Prime Early Access event were also down about 70% relative to Prime Day in July.

Amazon shares are down about 0.5% in pre-open Friday.