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As analysts in Washington react to the news that the Supreme Court looks poised to overturn Roe v. Wade, they say this November’s midterm elections are getting shaken up by the development.
Republicans had been widely expected to regain control of the U.S. House of Representatives in the elections, and the GOP had been getting good odds for taking back the U.S. Senate, too.
But the expectations now are that Democrats could fare better than had been anticipated, as their base appears likely to be energized if the high court in fact overrules the landmark 1973 decision that legalized abortion nationwide.
“This is already altering messaging & mobilization for the Democratic base,” said Chris Krueger, a strategist and managing director at Cowen Washington Research Group, in a note on Tuesday. He also emphasized the Supreme Court’s draft decision that has been leaked is “not final (we had expected it to be the final decision in late June).”
See: Leaked draft decision shows Supreme Court intends to overturn Roe v. Wade, Politico reports
The Roe v. Wade news is “setting the stage for an epic controversy that could scramble the November elections. Democrats had been bracing for steep House losses this fall, but suddenly they have an issue that could energize their base,” said Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist at AGF Investments
Betting market PredictIt on Tuesday is giving an 86% chance that Republicans take back the House, down from a high of 91% on Saturday, along with 74% odds for seizing control of the Senate, down from a high of 79% on Saturday.
Democrats have been quick to issue statements following the news, which came late Monday.
“If this report is true, this Republican attack on abortion access, birth control and women’s health care has dramatically escalated the stakes of the 2022 election,” said Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee executive director Christie Roberts. “At this critical moment, we must protect and expand Democrats’ Senate majority with the power to confirm or reject Supreme Court justices.”
Meanwhile, a Democratic pollster, Celinda Lake tweeted: “This will motivate voters and alienate swing women. Mark my words, these voters will react in the 2022 election.”
Some Democratic lawmakers on Monday night called for the codification of the right to abortion into federal law, though such pushes have not succeeded, with an effort in February getting 48 votes in the Senate.
“Congress must pass legislation that codifies Roe v. Wade as the law of the land in this country NOW,” tweeted Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont, an independent who usually votes with Democrats. “And if there aren’t 60 votes in the Senate to do it, and there are not, we must end the filibuster to pass it with 50 votes.
