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Shares of EVgo Inc. took a dive Monday, after BofA Securities analyst Ryan Greenwald questioned the recent “charging euphoria” that triggered a near-doubling in the electric-vehicle charging company’s stock last week, at a time that investors should be worried about a potential significant amount of shares that could be sold.
The stock
EVGO,
tumbled 14.9% in midday trading, on volume that already surpassed the full-day average. The stock had rocketed 89.4% last week amid investor optimism over the $1 trillion infrastructure bill that included billions of dollars for EV charging and after the company reported a surprise third-quarter profit.
The company had also announced last week expansions of its collaboration with auto maker General Motors Co.
GM,
and its partnership with ride-sharing company Uber Technologies Inc.
UBER,
BofA’s Greenwald downgraded EVgo to underperform from neutral on Monday, saying at current stock prices risks to investors “are not appropriately priced in.” He kept his stock price target at $11, which implies about 32% downside from current levels.
“Given the magnitude of funds contemplated at the federal level, we expect robust build-out of charging infrastructure in the U.S. to potentially limit utilization at individual chargers and drive down overall pricing across the board,” Greenwald wrote in a note to clients. “While we think EVgo should benefit from growth in the [near term] with the latest contemplated EV consumer tax credits, we see charger funding driving increased build out and competition.”
He added that there is no guarantee that further supportive legislation with additional EV and charging tax credits will be enacted given the current political climate and amid growing concerns over rising inflation.
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But declining prices and increasing competition aren’t the only headwinds Greenwald is concerned about. He’s said the lockup provisions, which keep shareholders from selling their stock, on more than 70% of the shares outstanding expire at the end of the year. He believes that could remain a “significant overhang” on the stock till then.
EVgo went public in early July through a merger with special-purpose acquisition company (SPAC) Climate Change Crisis Real Impact I Acquisition Corp.
Greenwald flagged two dates in the lockup provisions that are “critical to watch” for investors.
On Nov. 28, he said lockups on about 4.3 million shares held by the sponsor expire, while the lockups on about 195.8 million shares held by investment fund LS Power expire on Dec. 28. He said the LS Power shares that become eligible for sale represent almost triple the current number of shares in the public float.
“We are particularly cautious ahead of EVgo’s lockups given the large shareholder stake and how shares of other SPACs…have reacted,” Greenwald wrote.
EVgo’s stock has soared 56.2% over the past three months, while shares of rival EV charging companies Volta Inc.
VLTA,
have rallied 21.1% and Bling Charging Co.
BLNK,
have run up 26.9%. Over the same time, the S&P 500 index
SPX,
has gained 4.7%.
